Day-to-Day Murders in the nation Drop Thirty-Seven Percent In Claudia Sheinbaum, According to Official Data
The typical count of everyday killings each month in the country has fallen by thirty-seven percent since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, as stated by fresh official figures. However, public safety analysts have warned that murder figures may not signal improved national safety.
Marked Reduction in Per-Day Figures
There was an mean of almost 55 homicides a day in November compared with almost 87 when Sheinbaum assumed the presidential office in the previous September. This information was delivered by the head of the country’s federal public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily news conference on a recent Tuesday.
“The figures in killings that we’ve had during these months is very notable,” Sheinbaum stated, adding that in November the least amount of murders were recorded for any single November in the last 10 years.
Recent Context and Official Plan
Intense organized crime rivalries, alongside the administration's heavily militarised efforts to combat the cartels, have caused Mexico’s murder rate soar in the past few years. The rate hit a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the country’s official data agency.
That meant Mexico a murder rate more than 4x higher than the US. From that point, homicides have been on the decrease, falling to 33,550 last year. Sheinbaum has linked her public safety plan for an seemingly more pronounced drop in killings this year.
At a news briefing in the summer, the head of state stated: “We have a strategy, we have oversight of the plan, and there is detailed tracking locality by locality in certain cases. The plan functions. And we have to persist at it each day.”
The main elements of the President's security strategy include:
- Strengthening Mexico’s federal guard.
- Enhancing intelligence and investigative work.
- Increased collaboration between various departments.
Analyst Caution and Statistical Limitations
However, security analysts cautioned that using murder data to paint a picture of peace was flawed. This is particularly true considering the rise in other crimes such as forced disappearances.
“This would be very good information if this were a reduction, but I think we can’t just focus on the murder numbers and conclude: ‘Well then, excellent,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican cartels. “I would be guardedly positive.”
As reported by the policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, murders overall fell by over 20% in the initial 10 months of this year relative to the identical period last year. But, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in certain regions have increased by as much as 200%.
“Numbers on murders is no longer reliable for assessing the context of public insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who do not have the capacity or the will to correctly recognize and categorize corpses. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the capability to conceal violence through disappearances.”
Vargas added that relying on monthly averages of daily homicides was similarly problematic because it may obscure periods when there were notably spiking levels of murders.
“Employing the per-day mean makes surges of violent crime invisible,” he concluded.
Detentions and Seizures as Measures of Success
Where the government can highlight the success of its security strategy is on detentions and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 individuals were apprehended between October 2024 and this past November for serious offenses, per government data. Over 20,000 weapons were seized and 311 tonnes of drugs intercepted.
“The former US president cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of inaction, because actually she is doing a lot with these thousands of arrests, thousands of confiscations, and all the operational degrading of criminal groups. It’s very in political terms profitable,” said Vargas.
Ongoing Violence and Societal Anger
Yet notwithstanding these actions, Mexico remains grappling with extreme violence, with a number of regions in the grip of cartel-fueled conflict. In the previous month there was a high-profile murder of a popular local official in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors killed in the past year.
A short time later, thousands of young people demonstrated in the capital and across the nation to express their frustration at corruption and narco-violence.
“The federal government presents [data] in a way to build a story of safety. From a political standpoint it’s extremely successful, from a social perspective it’s extremely debatable,” Vargas concluded.
