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Voting has commenced for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data suggesting that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their emerge victorious, although experts suggest PVV stands little chance of being part of the future coalition.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock first-place finish and established a four-party all-conservative coalition that collapsed within a year, is currently marginally ahead in surveys and is projected to win between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-seat house of representatives.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's support has declined since 2023, when it won 37 seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out forming a government with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June amid disagreements concerning his radical immigration plans.

Key Contenders and Projections

Following a campaign dominated by issues such as immigration, medical expenses, and the nation's acute housing shortage, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, expected to win between 22 and 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist Democrats 66, predicted to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to more than double its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to lose seats, with several experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, securing just less than one percent of the national vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Of the 27 parties contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This significant fragmentation means that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and Holland has been ruled by coalitions – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the PVV becomes the largest party yet is shut out of government. However, critics and analysts argue that first place does not assure government participation and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

While the final outcome is hard to predict and coalition talks may require months, political observers suggest that following the most radical administration in recent memory, the future government is expected to be a inclusive coalition headed by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A usually accurate exit poll is expected shortly after closing time.

After the vote, an official negotiator will explore potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before assuming power.