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In the course of the 2016 US presidential election campaign, Hungary's prime minister was notable as the exclusive EU chief to back Donald Trump. This backing was expected, in light of the Hungarian leader's adoption of divisive notions like population replacement concept and the restrictions against media freedom. Commentators point out that Mr Orbán essentially wrote the playbook for Trump's base, with ex-Trump adviser Steve Bannon lauding him as the "Trump before Trump".

Campaign Assistance Before Hungarian Elections

Last week, with crucial Hungarian elections merely half a year off, Donald Trump returned some political favors. With Orbán pursues a fifth straight win presiding over a nation he calls an illiberal state, his ruling party currently trails in opinion polls. A meeting to the US capital produced more than Trump campaign souvenirs; it brought far more significant pre-election gifts.

Energy Exemptions and Fiscal Safeguards

Even though previously lecturing EU countries on the need to stop all energy imports from Russia, and warning of sanctions against states continuing to purchase Russian crude, the US president agreed to allow a unique waiver for the Hungarian government – the top consumer among EU members of Russian crude. As Orbán stated, the US government also agreed to extend a economic protection to Budapest should it encounters any upcoming challenges, given that EU institutions continues to withhold substantial EU funds to Hungary on grounds of rule-of-law breaches.

The particulars of this agreement remain vague. Yet Donald Trump has shown his inclination to support like-minded partners after the United States provided a a $20 billion loan to the Argentine leader, Argentina's president. Although the Hungarian PM did not secure a Trump trip to Budapest to Budapest, the Washington talks nonetheless proved a successful endeavor.

EU Concerns and Global Ramifications

Within EU circles, Trump's actions will have further underlined the strategic importance of the upcoming vote, before which the moderate contender, Magyar, holds a solid advantage in opinion data. Heads of state have learned not to expect steady principles from the Trump administration, and have grown used to the American leader's moves to diminish the bloc. Yet the waiver for Hungary – secured through an deal to acquire US gas and nuclear energy – openly contradicts EU aspirations to phase out Russian oil and gas by 2027.

• From 2022 onward, the top importers in the EU of Russian crude, Hungary and Slovakia, have provided well over £10bn to the Moscow's war operations.
• At the same time, the Hungarian government has repeatedly used the veto power to stymie progress in Ukraine’s EU accession talks.
• As the EU attempts to forge a unified and effective strategy for backing Ukraine, and strengthening its hand in any future peace negotiations, the Hungarian leader's alignment with Moscow at the international forums remains a significant obstacle.

Challenger's Position

Péter Magyar has steered clear of pledging a drastic turnaround on the war in Ukraine, and directed his efforts on internal matters, while emphasizing the necessity for Hungary to begin operating as a constructive EU member. After enduring repeated disruptions, EU officials can only hold out hope. Mr Orbán’s indifference to basic EU values, including the protection of minority groups and the freedom of non-governmental organizations, has remained a deeply troubling issue for the EU. His continued obstructionism on Ukraine could harm its future security.