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When Vladimir Putin visited India four years ago, the international order was markedly different. That short trip, limited by the global health crisis, focused on discussions on economic and military ties between the two nations.

Not long after, the large-scale military offensive of Ukraine would transform the Russian leader into a figure of international condemnation, significantly restricting his diplomatic travel.

Additionally, that era preceded a significant shift in US-India relations, marked by contentious rhetoric and the introduction of heavy import duties.

"Against this backdrop, the significance of this diplomatic mission to meet Modi cannot be overstated, serving as a signal of enduring ties and a rejection of external pressure," experts emphasize.

A Pivotal Moment for Both Nations

The summit takes place at a delicate moment. The Kremlin leader arrives following rejecting latest diplomatic initiatives for Ukraine, confident due to claimed advances by Russian forces.

"From Moscow's perspective, the primary importance of this engagement is its simple happening," stated a senior researcher based in Moscow. "It indicates a movement toward a form of normal international relations."

From Delhi's standpoint, the stakes are even higher. The country faces a difficult international environment, characterized by a semi-isolationist United States, a diminished Russia, and an increasingly powerful China.

The tightrope walk was highlighted just before the visit, when senior Western diplomats released a joint opinion piece criticizing Russia's commitment to peace. This elicited a firm rebuke from Indian officials, who called it an inappropriate interference.

'China Remains the Greatest Threat'

The India-Russia bond dates back to the Cold War era and is deeply entrenched, with Moscow long being Delhi's top arms provider. This relationship was generally accepted by the West until a change in approach.

Over time, Western nations overlooked India's substantial purchases of cheap energy from Russia. Yet, recently stalled diplomacy, accusations increased, leading to economic penalties and a significant downturn in transatlantic relations with Delhi.

"In response, India has reverted to its default strategy of 'hedging'," explained a foreign policy expert. "This demonstrates to the US that it has other choices and is observing how the global dynamics settle."

Apart from global diplomacy, India's core motivation with Russia is its strategic location. "China continues to be the greatest threat to India, and historically, India has depended on Russia as a continental balancer against China," the analyst added.

The deepening partnership between Russia and China has raised alarms in Delhi, prompting efforts to avoid an unbreakable bond between its adversary and its longtime partner.

This apprehension has also accelerated India's drive to reduce its defense procurement, shrinking its dependence on Russian equipment from a dominant share to under 40% in the past few years.

"India will attempt to strike a balance: buy sufficient Russian weaponry to maintain the alliance, but avoid overly reliant that a sudden cutoff would cripple its defenses," the analyst remarked.

The Oil Question

Enhanced economic cooperation is expected to be a key agenda item. President Putin has publicly emphasized plans to elevate cooperation with India to a "higher plane", defying Western sanctions.

The matter of energy imports is pivotal. While the Indian government has vowed to keep buying Russian oil, recent restrictions have slowed activity from the commercial buyers. At the same time, India has moved to increase imports of US energy.

A Russian official acknowledged "obstacles" in energy trade but said it would proceed uninterrupted. The official minimized the impact of sanctions, claiming they would cause only "minor" and "temporary" drops and that Russia possesses the "technology" to bypass such measures.

Limited Leverage on Ukraine

When the two leaders sit down, the issue of Ukraine is likely to be mentioned mainly through India's standard call for a peaceful resolution.

"Yes, Prime Minister Modi can speak to both sides, the nation lacks the necessary leverage to alter the course of the conflict," the analyst said. "Beyond encouraging talks, its capacity to make a difference is constrained."

In the end, despite the visible friendship between the two leaders, the partnership is fundamentally one of "pragmatic strategic interest," driven by cold calculation in a rapidly changing world.